Can Leicester win the EPL?

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There are just a few games left for the leading teams and it’s looking like a tight finish between Leicester, Spurs and outsiders Arsenal for the title. Below I’ve analysed the potential results based on recent form to predict the points each team might gather in the final run of this bizarre season.

Currently 6th place, Manchester United, have the best record against teams in the top 6 by miles but struggle to put away the bottom half of the table teams and consequently lose points and, in some instances, proud long-standing records of never losing at home to some.

United have 50 points from 30 matches and are currently level bar goal difference with West Ham. Incidentally the two have an FA Cup replay coming up as their only possible silverware this season. The final eight matches include five home fixtures against Everton, Villa, Palace, Leicester  and Bournemouth. Under normal circumstances you’d expect United to bag 13 to 15 points from these with the dropped points being the Everton match. I’m going to stick my neck out here and say we draw with Everton and Leicester and win the rest giving a haul of 11 points.

Away games are Spurs, Norwich and West Ham. Spurs are in fine form and title contenders. West Ham are tricky and it will largely depend on who is fit but from these 9 points I think we’d be lucky to get all of them and I suspect Spurs might beat us at White Hart Lane. Conservative tally of 4 points for these three games means we’ll add 15 points to our 50 making a total of 65.

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West Ham are currently 5th with 50 points five home games and 3 away matches. The home games are Arsenal, Watford, Swansea, Manchester Utd and Crystal Palace. Palace are going backwards, Watford are not the same since the goals dried up for Ighalo and Swansea just don’t frighten anyone away. I predict a draw for the United game and possibly another in the London derby with Arsenal to give a total of 11 points at home.

The away matches are Leicester, West Brom and Stoke. I think Leicester will get the win at home while West Brom are so unpredictable I’ll just say West Ham for this exercise. Stoke at home are a force and should win making a total of 3 points and 64 come end of the season.

 

Manchester City are currently 4th. They have 3 home matches and 5 away fixtures. The home fixtures are West Brom, Stoke and Arsenal. A lot will depend on how far City progress in Europe but for argument’s sake they manage to overcome their hoodoo of losing the league match after a midweek European fixture, wins against all three are probable. They should collect all 9 points.

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The away games are Bournemouth, Chelsea, Newcastle, Southampton and Swansea. Swansea and Newcastle should be in the bag. Bournemouth have proven to be tricky and Southampton just beat Liverpool while Chelsea are the form team in the EPL. In my opinion Chelsea win, Southampton and Bournemouth hold out for draws. 8 points collected away, making a grand total of 68.

Arsenal occupy third position on the table with 55 points and are the highest placed team with 8 remaining matches, 5 at home and 3 away. Home matches are Watford, Palace, West Brom, Norwich and Villa. Any gunner should be disgruntled if they fail to pick up 15 points.

The away matches are West Ham, Sunderland and Manchester City. I predict a win against Sunderland and draws in the other two adding 5 points. This makes a total of 75.

Second place currently belongs to Spurs on 61 points. Spurs and Leicester have played one extra match though so only have 7 more remaining. Spurs have three home matches against United, West Brom and Southampton. I predicted a draw in the United game but I think Spurs should get 6 points from the other two.

The four away games are Liverpool, Stoke, Chelsea and Newcastle. Liverpool and Chelsea will beat them and Stoke and Newcastle will fold under the Kane factor. Another 6 points for Spurs making a total of 73.

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The title forerunners are Leicester City and they have 7 remaining fixtures, 4 at home and 3 away. The home matches are Southampton, West Ham, Swansea and Everton. I believe the foxes could win all four of these matches adding 12 points.

The three away games are  trickier though with trips to Sunderland, Manchester United and Chelsea on the final day. I think Leicester have enough to see off Sunderland  and draw with United but the title might be on the line on the final day at Stamford Bridge and the question will be whether Ranieri’s men can have the BMT.

4 points in the bag before the final match day but might not have enough bottle to take it if it depends on a win at Chelsea. In any event, let’s add 16 points to make 82!

My prediction is:

  1. Leicester City – 82
  2. Arsenal – 75
  3. Tottenham – 73
  4. Manchester City – 68
  5. Manchester Utd – 65
  6. West Ham – 64

Arsenal appear to have the easier run in of the chasing pack and Spurs will regret all the draws in 2015. Pep will get his Champions League spot and United will be condemned to Europa League, hopefully ditching LVG along the way. West Ham will feel hard done by missing out on the big money of the European competitions after coming so close. The next question will be can Leicester hang onto the players who got them to the title?

Agree? Disagree? Leave your comments below of find me on Twitter for a chat

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